Better Get It Right

Apologies for not writing recently, but I’m back.  

Tomorrow marks the opening of the free agent period for the NHL and NBA and the Rangers and Knicks have some intriguing decisions to make. 

The Rangers have to decide if they want to chase after Zach Parise.  On the surface, Parise makes a lot of sense.  He has played in the NYC market, so he knows the territory.  He can put the puck in the net, something the Rangers definitely need.  But, he is going to cost a ton and his production has decreased each of the last three seasons.  In 2009-10 he scored 45 goals. In 2010-11 he scored 38 and last year he scored 31.  Now the Rangers could certainly use someone who scored 31 goals, but look at Parise’s +/- ratings over the last four years.  It has gone from +30 to +24 to -1 to -5. Now there are some problems with +/- data, but the trend isn’t good.  Ultimately, while I think Parise would be a big boost, there are two many questions I have about him to justify the eventually cost.

The Knicks have two questions hanging over them before they get to free agency shopping. First, what do they give Jeremy Lin and second, do they bring back J.R. Smith and Steve Novak?  I’m assuming that Lin is back because no matter what he does on the court, he translates into a lot of dollars off of it.  The Knicks are going to keep him because of that impact.  

The problem is Lin is going to be vastly overpaid for what he has done.  Lost in the Linsanity is the fact that he only played in 35 games and while he was certainly impressive at times, his shooting percentage and assist totals dropped over the final 13 games he played.  Maybe that’s a statistical blip, maybe it’s because the league figured out how to stop him.  Whatever you think, it’s worth remembering that the Knicks were his third NBA team and they came very close to cutting him.  It is possible that the Rockets and Golden State made a huge mistake, but it is also possible that they were right and Linsanity was simply a player getting hot for two months.  If I were the Knicks, I would try and keep whatever deal they give him a short one, just in case the case against Lin proves to be true. 

As for Novak and Smith, I say bring them back as long as you don’t break the bank.  Both of them were very good off the bench and as long as they get paid as bench players, there is no reason to let them go. Once you get those deals done, the Knicks will still have to find another guard to come in and join the rotation.  I don’t think Steve Nash is going to take their mid-level exemption, but there are some other interesting names out there.  

The madness starts at midnight, expect some dominos to start falling by the end of Sunday. 

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Comments

  • blmeanie  On July 1, 2012 at 7:44 am

    I think the +/- stat changes meaning depending on the D and the Goalie. As NJ has always had a good D and a great goalie I think it does show something. Parise’s own production drop obviously decreases the +/- for himself.

    Knicks are stuck taking Lin. Best case is he gets backup point guard money and is the backup to a free agent pg. Not likely to happen. No win situation unless he plays out of his mind but I don’t see a team with him, Carmelo and Amare ever winning a championship. Sorry.

    • nysportsfanatic  On July 1, 2012 at 9:43 am

      BL- I think the biggest reason the Knicks won’t win a championship in the next few years is Miami. LeBron is the best player in the world right now. Wade isn’t too far behind him and Bosh is underrated. Throw in a solid supporting cast and they will be next to impossible to beat. (And is Ray Allen really going to take his talents to South Beach?)

  • blmeanie  On July 3, 2012 at 7:01 am

    Wade without preferential treatment from the refs is nowhere near “isn’t too far behind (Lebron)”. Wade is on the slippery downside from all the reckless flopping and taking it to the hoop hard. Bosh is solid but not spectacular, given.

    Ray can make more with Boston and will likely stay.

    Now the Hawks, finally have found someone stupid enough to take the two worst deals going in Joe Johnson (really nice secondary player but NOT at that money) and Marvin “we shoulda taken Chris Paul” Williams.

    I joked with the local radio guys a few weeks ago when they were bashing Marvin, I said he never had a good pro coach and that if the Celtics had him coming off screens he’d be a lot different player. The Hawks are rebuilding, who knows what they will get, speculation is going for both Howard and Paul in next years FA. Those two with Josh Smith might be impressive. Not sure it will happen though. Oh yeah, coach won’t last the season either.

    • nysportsfanatic  On July 3, 2012 at 9:36 am

      Really interesting trade. Brooklyn (can’t believe I am writing that) obviously needs to get fans to go to the games and were worried that Deron Williams would bolt for Dallas. Now, they have given him another reason to stay and if they could somehow get Howard they would be a tough team to beat.

      Atlanta essentially wiped out their roster after next season. What do they have, two players under contract for 2013-14? That’s a lot of cap room. Howard and CP3 will certainly take note.

  • blmeanie  On July 3, 2012 at 10:20 am

    even though I bash Josh Smith, he is a talent if they get a good coach, something he’s never had here. Smith and Al Horford with a CP and/or Howard would be as tough as Miami. Not sure Howard wants to come here even though he grew up here. Radio today laughing but ultimately agreeing with Post headlines (evidently said something about stealing Joe Johnson from the Hawks). Once they broke it down and with a Russina billionaire that doesn’t concern himself with cap penalty taxes it would be viewed as a steal from that side. Radio guys kept playing “Celebration” coming back from commercial breaks. City is celebrating the destruction of the roster, for the moment anyway.

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